Does the 15/30 Stock Market Philosophy Work?

You know--you buy 100 shares at 15 nps and sell at 30nps. Does it really work or is there some guidance someone can offer? I never really did the stock market.
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Nilrem is right - check out neodaq and the charts there and it shows the max profit point (according to history of the stock market and frequency of cycles past certain sell points) is about 66 (although I can't remember the exact number, and it changes with the stock market obviously, although not by much.) Below that and sales are more frequent, not allowing port growth, past that sales are less frequent and some stocks rarely (or never, so far) cycle past that point. But if you need constant cash flow, then a 30 sell point is still profit and it's a verrry low risk strategy. I'd be careful of relying on TNT to cycle every stock past 150 too - we haven't had a bankruptcy in a while, and we all know how they like to mess with the big NP making elements of the site (hoarding, medicines etc), imagine if they bankrupted two stocks in quick succession...or three? Having 7 or 8k of a stock is one thing, having 100k+ is entirely another. Selling at very high points is most likely more profitable long term, but I think you take a bigger risk too. I use a staggered sell point too - sell down to 5k of the share at 60+, then down to 1k at 70+. I find that at the moment it nicely balances port growth and profit, but soon I will break the 300k shares mark and I will probably need to either increase my sell points or share levels.

(p.s. you are arguing with a CPA) lol, ummm okayyyyy, I know your not trying to necessarily make the max profit possible. I just kept referring to the max profit, b/c it was the easiest to show how different the profit made from stocks would be if you played stock market for a long time, using the sell at 60 method vs the sell at 30 more often method. When I mentioned loss before I know anything above what you pay for is profit, my point with using the term loss was construed for my example only just to illustrate the profit difference, i really just meant it to be negative from the max not loss. Basically what I meant was selling at 30 np is obviously 30k less then selling at 60np is all. My next point was you cant make up profit losses by buying another 1 k shares of stock, since they are limited. Each 1k of stock represents 45k of profit, if you use that profit to fill a deficit your further reducing the profit you should have made. Now compond this by multiple days of weeks/months/yrs and see how quickly your making much less then your max profit. Again I know max isnt your goal, its used for comparison. I completely understand what your saying in terms of time and your ratio, that you sell stock more often. I believe there is a limited time frame where you are 100% right and from that point foward I am right. I dont know exactly what day the transition would take place. Heres how i see it, the only bad thing of setting a higher selling point, is say we played stocks for a finite amount of time at the end we would both be left with some leftover stocks. The 60 sell point would obviously have more shares left over, that are now wasted np. In this time you may have sold more of your stock at 30 and therefore made more np then me and be right. However eventually a time will come after playin the stock market long enough, that the cost of the left over stocks from the 60 sell method, will be far less np wasted then the deficit in profit the 30np method failed to make compared to the 60 sell method, and from that point I come out ahead, and it is a mote point how fast you sold them, b/c the left over stuff woulnt matter, just profit. Basically it comes down to how long either of us intend to play, or someone to do the math of this to find an exact day and make it concrete lol, to discuss it on the same plane. Anyway, i think that was a good sharing of ideas, different styles work for different people, nothing is really right or wrong in playing a game per say, its all what you enjoy.

Nicely put Nilrem :) And, TNT generally only prevent the massive NP making strategies if it interferes with other people. They say that people can buy thousands of items if they want, but not with the purpose of pushing the prices up. So you shouldn't collaborate when hoarding items, and you shouldn't put 50 on sale at the new lowest price and continually buy those below yours. In any case, I have thousands of some items, and TNT have never bothered me any about it. Nor have any of my items been rushed back into the economy; every one has gone up in price.

holy crap you guys--i thought this was a game--u guys are arguing like this was real money. Books! Reasonable Prices!! http://www.neopets.com/browseshop.phtml?owner=kermat13&misc
Food! Reasonable Prices!! http://www.neopets.com/browseshop.phtml?owner=kermat13&misc

Lol :) don't you start. We'll argue about anything! And we're not arguing. Arguments are $10 an hour (replying with an argument indicates that you agree to these terms) :D

Arguing is fun though...as long is it doesn't turn into a fight. I will continue to happily make my lower profits and let these others who like keeping 2 million or more tied up in the stock market do your thing. :) Oh, and the CPA comment was more that I was probably looking at the investment in different terms then you, not that I was right. ((which I always am, of course ;)))

hmmm this has turned into a big argu...errr, discussion 0:-) I think sell at 60, if you can afford it. 15k isn't a lot, I should hope your shop brings in more then that daily. If you need the nps, sell at 30, but really, imo, if you need neopoints that badly, you shouldn't really get into the stock market at all, you're just gonna get frustrated when A) The neopoints you need are tied up in struggling stocks that won't go above 10, and B) While perhaps not too often, you will often enough to drive yourself insane, seeing the stock you just recently sold at 30 reach 60+.

Nice to see some of the Daq contributers in this thread! Doesn't take much to get some hearty discussion on stocks going. :D There is several years' worth of data collection and analysis behind the 60-sell-point recommendation. Glancing at the graphs will show that almost every stock that rises to 30 continues on its "run" to the high 50s at least. Very few actually turn down once they've gotten up to 30, whereas they often struggle for a long time to break past 20, so in fact for a fast turnaround, 19 is probably a better sell-point than 30! But nobody gets excited about a 26% profit. Here's an example: since Mar/05, ACFI has peaked at 19 (fifteen times!), at 35 (three times), at 50 (five times), at 65 (five times), and recently hit 75-ish. If you'd sold at 30 each time it started a run, you'd have had to wait just as long for the next run, while it kept rising 10 of those times without you. That's just another way of looking at it, cuz it's fun to analyse! I started averaging about one million profit per month about three years ago, once my portfolio reached 300,000 shares. What is true for everyone who plays the Stock Market is that anyone can succeed with patience and time. Exactly how you play may be different, and will probably change anyway, but the opportunity is there for anyone - all it takes is 15,000 NPs everyday, and never sell at a loss. [DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a certain indicator of future performance, and TNT can jolly well do whatever they want.] (by the way, it looks like every stock has hit 60 at least 3 times)

Nice work guys :) glad to see people have the right idea. As far as I know, TNT set up a system that runs the stock market. Initially, this was based on purchases and sales, but a guild got together and routed the system by collaborating and mass buying individual stocks to push the price up. They made billions of NP within weeks. TNT froze them, and revised the system so that it wasn't affected by purchases (or at least not affected by such a large extent). From some editorial I read a while ago (more than a year maybe), TNT occasionally look at the market and make minor adjustments to the system they have, but this is very rare. No stock gets bankrupted without TNT making the move, and I heard a rumour that they were no longer bankrupting them. No idea whether this is true, but there certainly haven't been any in a fair few years now.

I start selling at 60 and hold on to at least half of what I have waiting for it to go higher, sell a few at 70+ and sometimes will still hold on to 1k when it hits 80+. I've been hovering just under 300k shares for about 6 months now (mostly because I forget to buy some days - I really don't sell stocks all that often). It's interesting to read all the tips though.

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